The true odds, proven.
A paid, evidence-backed decision oracle for data-resolvable prediction markets. Agents and individuals call it for an independent, deterministic probability — with an uncertainty interval, model version, source freshness, model-disagreement explanation, executable bid/ask comparison, estimated fees, net expected value, cross-venue comparison, calibration evidence, and a tamper-evident receipt.
How a decision is made
1. Read the rule
Bind the exact resolution rule, settlement source, resolution time, entity/location, strike, and which side YES prices. If any of these can't be bound, the oracle refuses rather than guesses.
2. Compute the probability
A deterministic engine — never an LLM — produces the independent probability from real-world sources, with an uncertainty interval and an explicit model version.
3. Compare price and cost
Read the executable bid/ask (not last trade), estimate venue fees, and compute net expected value. An edge is only called actionable if it clears both the oracle's own uncertainty and real trading friction.
4. Explain the uncertainty
Surface source and model disagreement, the model range, and the largest outlier — so the confidence is legible, not asserted.
5. Commit a receipt
Hash-commit the decision into an append-only, tamper-evident ledger, linked by request id. A receipt exists whether the market resolves or not.
6. Resolve and calibrate
When the market settles, record the outcome against the precommitted forecast and update the public calibration record — losses kept, not hidden.
Three paid services
rwoo.check_market
POST /v1/check-market
Independent probability, uncertainty interval, model version, confidence, executable-price EV, model-disagreement explanation, and a tamper-evident receipt for one supported market.
rwoo.cross_venue_edge
POST /v1/cross-venue-edge
Conservative cross-venue equivalence and executable complementary edge. Only exact equivalence is actionable, and it is never called risk-free.
rwoo.get_calibration
GET /v1/calibration
The public, precommitted calibration record by domain, family, model version, and probability band — with independent event counts always shown.
A live example verdict
Pulled at request time from the current published opportunity scan — not hardcoded.
Will the maximum temperature be 95-96° on Jul 11, 2026?
- Oracle probability
- 0.0%
- Uncertainty interval
- 0.0% – 0.0%
- Confidence
- 100.0%
- Model version
- weather-ensemble-v2
- Market implied
- 2.5%
- Side
- NO
- Actionable
- Yes
edge exceeds both the oracle's own uncertainty band and estimated trading friction
Why — the explanation trace
3 deterministic model/source estimates span 0.0%–0.0% (median 0.0%); icon_seamless is furthest from the median at 0.0%. The reported confidence is 1.00.
| Model / source | Probability |
|---|---|
| ecmwf_ifs025 | 0.0% |
| gfs_seamless | 0.0% |
| icon_seamless | 0.0% |
Calibration proof
Cross-venue equivalence
A price difference is only called an edge when the two contracts are provably the same event. Classifications:
| Class | Meaning |
|---|---|
exact_equivalent | Rule, settlement authority, resolution time, and YES orientation all match. Only this class can be actionable. |
candidate_needs_rule_review | Titles align but at least one binding is unverified. Not tradeable as arbitrage. |
related_not_equivalent | Same topic, materially different contract. |
not_equivalent | Different events. |
Never risk-free. Complementary executable-price edge, subject to fill, custody, venue, cancellation, and settlement risk.
The Deterministic-Core Law
- Deterministic code produces every probability.
- An LLM may route and narrate, but may not create, alter, veto, or sanity-check a probability.
- Unsupported or ambiguous markets fail closed.
- Unknown entities never silently become probability zero.
- Every result identifies its model version.
- Every successful or refused decision remains auditable.
- Model agreement is not automatically empirical calibration confidence.
- Missing data stays missing, not zero.
- The evidence and receipt ledgers are append-only.
Evidence, receipts & the X Layer anchor
Every priced or refused decision commits a receipt into an append-only, keccak256 hash-chained ledger, linked by request id. Each record's chain hash makes after-the-fact rewriting detectable — including by the builder. Anchoring the chain head on X Layer mainnet goes through the verified OKX Agentic Wallet path; the local hash chain is always verifiable on its own. Verify a receipt →
Execution boundary
Execution is not the product. Funded trading is optional, gated, currently disabled, and non-custodial — it stays off until the relevant calibration evidence gate passes. This phase implements no authenticated order placement.
What is covered — honestly
Supported
Weather — Flagship. Daily temperature maxima/minima and precipitation for stations with a verified GHCND identity, against NWS/NOAA settlement.
Economics — Headline & core CPI, GDP, unemployment, payrolls, Fed rate decisions, and recession-quarter nowcasts against official releases.
Sports — Data-resolvable structures with a wired engine (e.g. World Cup stage-of-elimination, and match engines behind coverage gates).
Deferred (fails closed)
— Markets whose resolution rule, source, time, entity, strike, or YES side cannot be bound.
— Venues whose fee schedule is not yet verified (edge is disclosed, never guessed).
— Anything requiring subjective judgement rather than a data source.
Build on it
Discover the services, read the schemas, and call the API.