Calibration evidence
Every priced scan record is precommitted before the market resolves; losses and non-actionable forecasts are kept. Confidence is earned only through independent, resolved events — never asserted.
Report generated 2026-07-11T01:33:49.339389+00:00 Evidence ledger verified (1553 records)
1548
Precommitted forecasts
5
Resolved
1543
Unresolved
5
Independent events
Overall reliability
0.026
Brier score (lower is better)
0.224
Max calibration gap
5
Scored rows
| Band | n | Mean predicted | Actual hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0-0.1 | 2 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 0.1-0.2 | 1 | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 0.2-0.3 | 1 | 22.4% | 0.0% |
| 0.7-0.8 | 1 | 77.6% | 100.0% |
Promotion readiness by family
| Family | Independent events | Next checkpoint | Concordance | Eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| sports.world_cup | 5 | 30 | no checks yet | accumulating |
| weather.temperature | 0 | 30 | no checks yet | accumulating |
all priced scan records are precommitted; losses and non-actionable forecasts are retained
Machine-readable: https://api.trueodd.xyz/v1/calibration. Each resolved forecast is receipted — verify receipts.